Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 10 August 2026, measured via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary forecasts. The 2% implied probability reflects trader expectations that the high will fall outside a specific temperature band—likely a narrow range in the 80s Fahrenheit, given New York's typical August conditions. Resolution hinges on a single data point from a designated weather station, eliminating ambiguity around which thermometer or methodology applies.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show highs clustering between 79–86°F, with extremes reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The National Weather Service records indicate that days exceeding 90°F occur roughly once every three to five years in August across the New York metropolitan area. The current crowd probability suggests traders view the specified range as highly probable, leaving only marginal odds for outlier conditions—either a cooler-than-normal day or a significant heat event. This tight pricing reflects the statistical clustering of August weather patterns rather than exceptional uncertainty.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook, typically issued mid-July, which signals whether August 2026 will trend warmer or cooler than normal. Real-time catalysts include any Atlantic tropical systems that could alter local conditions in early August, though such events remain difficult to predict eight months ahead. Platform divergence appears minimal here: Polymarket and Kalshi both offer decimal odds conversion, though Kalshi's KYC requirements and US-only access differ from Polymarket's international reach. Betfair and Smarkets provide fractional odds formats favoured by European traders, though weather markets on those books typically carry lower liquidity than crypto-focused prediction platforms.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on August 10? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.